By: Aubrey Hruby – Senior Investment Advisor, Palladium
As the AI revolution unfolds and the energy transition continues, the need for critical minerals has intensified and become the object of geopolitical competition. From copper to rare earths, these resources are the backbone for the technologies that will determine the winners and losers of future economic competition—from electric vehicles to data centers.
Yet, amid this accelerating race for access to critical minerals, a complex question looms: how do we balance the urgent demand for these minerals with the imperative to build productive, inclusive, sustainable economies, especially in resource-rich regions like Africa?
Africa is home to roughly 30% of the world’s known reserves of critical minerals. That figure is likely conservative, given the continent’s vast underexplored geological potential. For African governments and communities, this moment presents a historic opportunity to attract investment, catalyze industrial growth, and drive long-term prosperity. But it also revives old fears—of extraction without development, of wealth leaving without benefit, of history repeating itself.
The challenge is not simply about mining more and faster. It’s about mining better.
A Competitive Global Landscape
Recent headlines have spotlighted China’s willingness to weaponize its dominant market position in rare earth exports, prompting the US and European countries to search for alternative sources in Brazil, Kenya and Greenland.
This has created a fiercely competitive global landscape, where countries are vying for investment, particularly in value addition, and companies are seeking stable, scalable supply chains.
But mining is not a short-term endeavor. These are long-term, capital-intensive projects that require environmental stewardship, community buy-in and a social license to operate. Governments must therefore strike a delicate balance: attracting investment quickly while laying the groundwork for sustainable development.
Attracting Investment
Ensuring sustainability also includes addressing the valid concerns around extraction without development which characterized the colonial experience for many nations. African nations are prioritizing addition, processing, refining, and manufacturing, within their borders, but this effort must consider the economics of specific minerals, the cost of energy and logistics, and global competitive forces. There is no one size fits all approach to natural resource policy and African countries can learn important lessons from nations such as Indonesia and Chile.
My recent work leading the Atlantic Council’s Task Force on Critical Minerals included the publication of a report that emphasized that African governments should not wait for perfect regulatory regimes before aggressively seeking investment. Instead, they should adopt a “learn-by-doing” approach: secure investment now, and improve governance, environmental standards, and value-chain integration over time. Mines take years to generate royalties; the time to act is now.
That said, speed must not come at the expense of standards. Governments can—and should—embed clear expectations into licensing procedures, contract negotiations, and legal frameworks. Once these are in place, they become difficult to change.
The goal is not perfection, but progress with integrity.
Innovation in Practice
Encouragingly, we’re seeing innovative models emerge and approaches evolve. In Madagascar, working alongside Rio Tinto, GISI Consulting Group company Palladium helped establish a long-term fund that invests in diversified industries such as fisheries, recognizing that diversifying livelihoods strengthens communities and reduces dependency on a single industry.
On the artisanal side, tech companies such as Sabi, originating in Nigeria and now operating in Zimbabwe and Zambia, are pioneering traceability and capital access for small-scale producers. By enabling these producers to access capital to upgrade operations and meet international standards, Sabi is bridging the gap between informal mining and global markets.
It’s a powerful example of how technology can address informality where policy has long struggled.
Given its enormous human and resource wealth, this is a defining moment for Africa. African nations such as the Democratic Republic of Congo can either seize the opportunity to leverage its resources into prosperity or risk being sidelined in a rapidly evolving global market.
The path forward requires pragmatism, innovation, and a commitment to shared value.
Aubrey Hruby is Senior Investment Advisor at GISI Consulting Group company Palladium and a Senior Advisor at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center. She leads a Task Force on Critical Minerals at the Atlantic Council and has helped facilitate well over two billion dollars in investment into frontier markets.
GISI Consulting Group’s Critical Minerals Solutions are delivered by three of the Group’s global businesses working in collaboration: Palladium, GEI Consultants, and Hill International.